Shahid Beheshti University Sustainable Development of Geographical Environment 2476-5805 6 11 2025 02 19 Investigating and Predicting Trend of Land Cover/Land Use Changes in Coastal Habitat of Kiashahr Lagoon Investigating and Predicting Trend of Land Cover/Land Use Changes in Coastal Habitat of Kiashahr Lagoon 101 116 105584 10.48308/sdge.2024.236577.1209 FA Elnaz Soleymani Department of Environmental Science, Natural Resources Faculty, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran 0009-0009-6317-9267 Afshin Alizadeh Shabani Department of Environmental Science, Natural Resources Faculty, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran Afshin Danehkar Department of Environmental Science, Natural Resources Faculty, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran Parvaneh Sobhani Department of Environmental Science, Natural Resources Faculty, Lorestan ‎University, Khorramabad, Iran Journal Article 2024 08 15 <strong>Background and Purpose:</strong> Coastal wetlands are transitional land-to-sea ‎ecosystems that provide a wide range of ‎benefits from ecosystem services, especially in ‎supporting livelihood opportunities for various ‎wildlife species. However, due to human activities, wetlands are ‎continuously being degraded worldwide. The ‎degradation and loss of these natural ‎ecosystems threaten most of the natural ‎resources used by local communities and ‎wildlife-dependent resources. Any ‎change in wetland ecosystems can also affect ‎adjacent, upstream, and downstream ‎ecosystems. For this purpose, examining the ‎extent of changes in these areas is one of the ‎main effective methods to prevent the ‎degradation and loss of these sensitive areas. ‎Therefore, the present study examined the ‎extent of changes in land cover and use around ‎the Kiashahr Lagoon in Boujagh ‎National Park, one of the country's important bird areas and one of Iran's ‎important sites in the Ramsar Convention.‎<br /><strong>Materials and Methods</strong>: In this study, the trend of land cover/use ‎changes was examined over 15 years. Landsat 5 (TM) satellite images for 2007 and Landsat 8 (OLI-TIRS) for 2014 and 2022 were classified and analyzed in the Google Earth Engine (GEE) web-based system. For classification, the Random Forest (RF) algorithm was used due to its remarkable accuracy and precision compared to other classification methods. Due to the maximum growth and density of vegetation in the region, satellite images were selected from May to August. In this study, NDVI and NDWI indices were used to better distinguish vegetation and water areas. Finally, validation was performed ‎using the overall accuracy method and the ‎kappa coefficient. The final result included 10 ‎classes of water area, waterside, seaside, the main branch (Sefidrud), access channel, vegetation, hand-planted forest, agricultural land, bare land, and man-made land. To predict and model the changing ‎trend for the year 2050, a combined Markov ‎chain and autonomous cell (CA-Markov) ‎model was used in the Idrisi Terr Set ‎software.‎<br /><strong>Findings and Discussion</strong>: According to the results of the changes between ‎‎2007 and 2022, the highest increase was related to man-made lands by 25.5 percent and the highest decrease was related to agricultural lands by 98.3 percent, the main reasons for which are the conversion of agricultural land to man-made land‎ and the ‎development of human activities in this area. Likewise, the waterside decreased by 81.3 percent, ‎the water area by 68.2 percent, the main branch (Sefidrud) by 0.42 percent, and the access channel‎ ‎by 0.16 percent in 2022 compared to 2007. ‎These results can indicate the development of ‎human activities and industrialization as well ‎as the trend of climate change in this region ‎during the studied years, which has led to a ‎decrease in the level of water resources, ‎including waterside, seaside, and the main branch (Sefidrud). The forecast results ‎of the CA-Marcove model also showed that by ‎‎2050, the highest increase trend among existing ‎land cover/uses will be in hand-planted forests at ‎‎0.57 percent. This is while agricultural land will have the largest decline with 1.15 percent.<br /><strong>Conclusion</strong>: Based on the results, continued land cover/use changes in Kiashahr Lagoon could lead to the destruction and extinction of the region's biodiversity. Given the importance of this area as part of a national park and a highly sensitive coastal marine habitat, minimizing these adverse effects and controlling them in the coming years requires appropriate and integrated planning for the proper exploitation of this natural resource. It is worth noting that the findings of this study could provide an opportunity to advance optimal solutions for the protection of Kiashahr Lagoon and the restoration of this wetland ecosystem, and to further control and monitor human activities in this sensitive coastal area.<br /> <br /><br /><br /> <strong>Background and Purpose:</strong> Coastal wetlands are transitional land-to-sea ‎ecosystems that provide a wide range of ‎benefits from ecosystem services, especially in ‎supporting livelihood opportunities for various ‎wildlife species. However, due to human activities, wetlands are ‎continuously being degraded worldwide. The ‎degradation and loss of these natural ‎ecosystems threaten most of the natural ‎resources used by local communities and ‎wildlife-dependent resources. Any ‎change in wetland ecosystems can also affect ‎adjacent, upstream, and downstream ‎ecosystems. For this purpose, examining the ‎extent of changes in these areas is one of the ‎main effective methods to prevent the ‎degradation and loss of these sensitive areas. ‎Therefore, the present study examined the ‎extent of changes in land cover and use around ‎the Kiashahr Lagoon in Boujagh ‎National Park, one of the country's important bird areas and one of Iran's ‎important sites in the Ramsar Convention.‎<br /><strong>Materials and Methods</strong>: In this study, the trend of land cover/use ‎changes was examined over 15 years. Landsat 5 (TM) satellite images for 2007 and Landsat 8 (OLI-TIRS) for 2014 and 2022 were classified and analyzed in the Google Earth Engine (GEE) web-based system. For classification, the Random Forest (RF) algorithm was used due to its remarkable accuracy and precision compared to other classification methods. Due to the maximum growth and density of vegetation in the region, satellite images were selected from May to August. In this study, NDVI and NDWI indices were used to better distinguish vegetation and water areas. Finally, validation was performed ‎using the overall accuracy method and the ‎kappa coefficient. The final result included 10 ‎classes of water area, waterside, seaside, the main branch (Sefidrud), access channel, vegetation, hand-planted forest, agricultural land, bare land, and man-made land. To predict and model the changing ‎trend for the year 2050, a combined Markov ‎chain and autonomous cell (CA-Markov) ‎model was used in the Idrisi Terr Set ‎software.‎<br /><strong>Findings and Discussion</strong>: According to the results of the changes between ‎‎2007 and 2022, the highest increase was related to man-made lands by 25.5 percent and the highest decrease was related to agricultural lands by 98.3 percent, the main reasons for which are the conversion of agricultural land to man-made land‎ and the ‎development of human activities in this area. Likewise, the waterside decreased by 81.3 percent, ‎the water area by 68.2 percent, the main branch (Sefidrud) by 0.42 percent, and the access channel‎ ‎by 0.16 percent in 2022 compared to 2007. ‎These results can indicate the development of ‎human activities and industrialization as well ‎as the trend of climate change in this region ‎during the studied years, which has led to a ‎decrease in the level of water resources, ‎including waterside, seaside, and the main branch (Sefidrud). The forecast results ‎of the CA-Marcove model also showed that by ‎‎2050, the highest increase trend among existing ‎land cover/uses will be in hand-planted forests at ‎‎0.57 percent. This is while agricultural land will have the largest decline with 1.15 percent.<br /><strong>Conclusion</strong>: Based on the results, continued land cover/use changes in Kiashahr Lagoon could lead to the destruction and extinction of the region's biodiversity. Given the importance of this area as part of a national park and a highly sensitive coastal marine habitat, minimizing these adverse effects and controlling them in the coming years requires appropriate and integrated planning for the proper exploitation of this natural resource. It is worth noting that the findings of this study could provide an opportunity to advance optimal solutions for the protection of Kiashahr Lagoon and the restoration of this wetland ecosystem, and to further control and monitor human activities in this sensitive coastal area.<br /> <br /><br /><br /> https://egsdejournal.sbu.ac.ir/article_105584_85934e69faf3cca8bd5a2aa3b732c4af.pdf