Analysis of variations the beginning and ending of precipitations with tending models in western south of Iran

Document Type : Original article

Authors

1 Assistant Professor, Department of Physical Geography, Payamnour University, Yasouj, Iran

2 Assistant Professor, Department of Physical Geography, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

Nowadays, climate changes and global warming are caused by fossil fuel consumption is greatly taken into consideration and Because of the widespread effects of climate on life, people have to understand the environment and its surroundings. Following global warming, in addition to amount precipitation, the time of precipitation will change. To investigation the dates of the beginning and end of daily precipitation, 11 chosen synoptic stations in the South West region of Iran with the scale of 30 years (1362-1392) were Extracted based on Julius encoding and Homogeneity of these series have been tested using test x2 and analyzed by parametric Least Mean Square Error (LMSE)analysis and non0parametric Kendall’s tau test. The conclusions of LMSE analysis, trend of beginning or ending time and no trends can be observed but the ending time be observed positive trend in the Dezful and Shahrekord stations. The conclusions of Kendall’s tau analysis show the beginning time negative trend in the Dezful station and no trends can be observed in other stations. But the ending time be observed as a positive trend in the Dezful and Shahrekord stations and no trends can be observed in other stations.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

- Dao – Yi, G., Shi, P.J. and Wang, J.A., 2004. Daily Precipitation Changes in the Semi Arid Region Over Northern China. Journalof Aridb Environments: 59(4), p. 771-784.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140196304000552
- Gonzalea – Hidalgo, J.C., Deluis, M., Raventos, J. and Sanchez, J.R., 2001. Spatial Distribution of Seasonal Rainfall Trends in Western Mediterranean area, International Journal of Climatology: 21, p. 843-860.
https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.647
-Hirsch, R.M., Alexander, R.B. and Smith, R.A., 1991. Selection of methods for the detection and estimation of trends in water Quality. Water Resour. Res: 27, p. 803-813.
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/91WR00259
- Lettenmaier, D.P., 1976. Detection of trends in water quality data from records with dependent observations. Water Resour. Res.: 12, p. 1037-1046. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/WR012i005p01037
- McLaughlin, J.F., Jessica, J., Hellmann, J.L., Boggs, C.L. and Ehrlich, P.R., 2002. Climate Change hast ens Population extinctions. PNAS. Ecology: 99.9, 6073 p.
https://www.pnas.org/content/99/9/6070
- Odekunle, T.O., 2006. Determining Rainy Season and Retreat Over Nigeria from Precipitation Amount and Number of Rainy Days, Theor, App1. Climatol., 83, p. 193-201. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00704-005-0166-8
- Sivakumar, M.V.K., 1988. Prediction rainy Season potential from the oneset of rains in Southern Sahelian and Sudanian Climatic Zones of West Africa. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology: 42, p. 295-305.
https://iri.columbia.edu/~ousmane/print/Onset/Sivakumar1988_AgForesMet.pdf

Files

Share

How to cite

Statistics