Abstract

Background and purpose:
Today, the significant increase in the use of private cars affects public transportation and is one of the most prominent issues in many cities. This issue can lead to harmful environmental consequences such as traffic congestion, global warming, climate change, environmental pollution and socio-economic problems. Therefore, the consequences of these problems can be avoided by implementing the principles of transportation-oriented development in Tabriz city. In fact, by using the transportation-oriented development approach, it is possible to turn Tabriz into a development center through planning and organizing important public transportation centers. The purpose of this research is to analyze the factors affecting the future planning of transportation-oriented development of Tabriz city.
 
 
 
Materials and Methods:
This research was carried out in terms of applied purpose and in terms of descriptive-analytical and survey methodology using a researcher-made questionnaire. The structural equation model was used to test the hypotheses. The statistical community includes experts in the field of strategic planning and foresight of transportation development in Tabriz city. The sampling method in this research is random purposeful sampling. Usually, the number of experts is chosen between 10-50 people, and in this research, 20 experts and specialists were questioned. Convergent validity test was used for the validity of the questions and Cronbach's alpha coefficient was used to check the reliability of the questions. The statistical analysis of the data was done by structural equation method in SmartPLS and SPSS software. The indicators examined in this research include: density, urban development, economic development, real estate value, environment, health of the city and citizens, choice and type of travel, greenhouse effects.
Findings and Discussion:
According to the results, the lack of a practical and efficient planning approach that includes a wide range of urban planning components including transportation, land use, and infrastructure requires researchers to develop integrated planning methods. One of these approaches, which can adequately deal with the planning of scattered urban areas, is transportation-oriented development planning. The sensitivity analysis showed that changing the weight of indicators in optimistic, pessimistic and average views has no significant effect on the levels of transportation-oriented development. As a result, the determined transportation development levels showed a high degree of reliability at the neighborhood scale in Tabriz city. According to the purpose of the research, 3 scenarios were done, according to the results of the research, the first scenario is sustainable and green transportation. It is an optimistic scenario in which most of the goals of sustainable transportation have been realized. The second scenario (continuation of the status quo and dependence on private cars): In this scenario, the continuation of the status quo in the transportation network and car ownership and the tendency to use private cars among citizens has increased. The third scenario (chaos): It is a scenario in which there is a long distance to reach the goals of sustainable transportation.
 
Conclusion:
Transportation within the city of Tabriz is facing problems such as weak public transportation, increase in car ownership, crowded roads, inappropriate use of land, lack of side facilities, etc. The failure to solve these problems along with the uncertainties that may occur in the future can cause a crisis and will definitely take us away from the goals of sustainable development. Planning in the field of transportation and achieving sustainable development requires a long-term view that is associated with uncertainty; therefore, it requires the use of approaches that have the ability to deal with uncertainties. The lack of a functional and efficient planning approach including a wide range of urban planning components including transportation, land use, and infrastructure requires researchers to develop integrated planning methods.