A cross-sectional assessment of the stability of the transportation system during the corona epidemic (Case: users of line 7 of Tehran's rapid bus system)

Background and Purpose: With the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, a profound transformation occurred in urban life, with the transportation system emerging as one of its central focal points. Due to the high volume of users, the resilience of the transportation system has become one of the most critical challenges for urban management, particularly in megacities. The consequences of this challenge can encompass a wide range of environmental, social, economic, and other risks. In fact, the pandemic has shifted the paradigm of public transportation usage, pushing cities toward new planning approaches tailored to crisis conditions. It appears that this issue has recurred throughout history, meaning that human mobility systems have faced unprecedented restrictions during times of widespread disease. Now, with the spread of the coronavirus in the 21st century, urban management systems—especially in megacities of less developed countries—are facing even greater challenges, making it essential to examine the dimensions of this vital issue.
Methodology: The research method is descriptive-analytical with an applied nature. Descriptive-analytical studies encompass various types, and this study is both a causal or ex-post facto investigation and a case study. Data and information were collected through two approaches: documentary and field methods. In the documentary section, plans, articles, books, statistical yearbooks, and official data were utilized, while in the field section, a questionnaire was employed as the main tool. The statistical population of the study includes users of Tehran's Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) Line 7. Between September 23 and October 7, 2022, a total of 400 questionnaires were distributed among them. Given the unlimited and undefined size of the statistical population, efforts were made to distribute the maximum number of questionnaires to achieve data saturation. The sampling method was non-random and convenient, ensuring inclusivity and representation across age, gender, education level, and other demographic groups. The data obtained from the questionnaires—based on a five-point Likert scale—were analyzed using a one-sample independent t-test, and the level of transportation system resilience was assessed across time series.
Findings and Discussion: The evaluation of resilience-related indicators within the urban mobility system across three distinct timeframes reveals notable trends. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, the system exhibited significant instability, with a mean score of 2.82, falling below the neutral benchmark of 3.00. During the pandemic, the system shifted toward greater resilience, with the mean increasing to 3.93, indicating a highly acceptable level of stability. Following the pandemic, the mean score declined slightly but remained within a relatively acceptable range. The results across all three periods show that the sub-indicator “Travel Demand” achieved the highest average score of 3.65, reflecting the greatest level of resilience among all sub-indicators. In contrast, the sub-indicator “Travel Behavior” recorded the lowest overall mean of 3.33, indicating relatively lower stability. A noteworthy finding is that all sub-indicators experienced an increase in their mean scores during the pandemic compared to the pre-pandemic period, followed by a post-pandemic decline. This pattern highlights the dynamic impact of the pandemic on urban mobility and suggests that while resilience improved under crisis conditions, it partially regressed once the immediate threat subsided.
Conclusion: In previous studies, the resilience of transportation systems has often been evaluated through urban management programs focused on the allocation of various transport options. However, this research explores the dimensions of travel behavior, trip management, travel patterns, and travel demand among users of the transportation system—highlighting the resilience embedded in user behavior. Accordingly, the emergence of the pandemic served as a critical lesson for urban planning systems, encouraging citizens to adopt more efficient and conscious use of public transportation. What remains of utmost importance is the preservation and enhancement of this behavioral resilience, and the prevention of regression to pre-pandemic conditions. To achieve this, urban transportation policies must be revised and adapted in line with the behavioral and consumption needs of users, ensuring flexibility and responsiveness in future planning.