Abstract

Background and Purpose: Today, the world faces to widespread and growing challenges in the area of water security. Precipitation patterns in different parts of the world are changing, alternating between drought and flood; groundwater levels are declining, and pollution of water resources is adding to water security issues. The increasing population growth in cities and the subsequent increase in problems and issues arising from urbanization in broad economic, social, cultural, and environmental dimensions, the need to create and use urban management platforms with a strategic approach has arisen. Iran has new cities with attraction of population overflow function have been defined and implemented for a large number of metropolitan cities in the country. The newly founded city of Pardis, which was built as a population overflow for the Tehran metropolis, is located 30 kilometers east of Tehran. This city has no suitable alternative in terms of geomorphology and faces numerous environmental problems, including water shortages and the entry of urban, industrial, and agricultural wastewater into natural waterways. Considering the possibility of this city expanding in the future, the water issue seems to be important in it. The main question is what are the scenarios for the water security of the new city of Pardis?
Methodology: The present study is of an applied nature. The required data were collected through library and survey methods and examined and analyzed using Micmac and Scenario Wizard software. In the present study, first, by referring to library resources, the most important factors affecting the water security of the new city of Pardis were identified and their accuracy was checked through interviews with experts. In the next stage, a researcher-made questionnaire was prepared in the form of an impact analysis matrix and the degree of relationship between the variables and the relevant field was identified by experts in Micmac software. With a view to the identified factors, a total of 25 cases were considered for 6 key variables. Based on the key variables and their different cases, another researcher-made questionnaire was designed in a cross-sectional manner and provided to the research statistical population. The research statistical population includes 28 experts active in water security studies who were selected using a purposive sampling method. The completed questionnaires were entered into the Scenario Wizard software through the Ensemble command, and a portfolio of scenarios for the water security of the new city of Pardis was identified, and scenarios with strong compatibility were analyzed and simulated in the Vensim software.
Findings and Discussion: Citizens' distrust of political actors at the local, regional, and national levels, increased feelings of discrimination, increased local competition for access to water resources, increased power relations in the form of conflict and conflict, increased migration to the city of Pardis, and inefficiency of water management were identified as key variables. Key variables were defined in the form of different states and scenarios for water security were developed. Therefore, the water security situation of the new city of Pardis was expressed as a critical situation with 22.22%.
Conclusion: Iran, 85% of which has an arid and semi-arid climate, has been facing water shortages in recent years due to rapid population growth and improper spatial distribution, urbanization, climate change, successive droughts, desertification and air pollution, decreasing groundwater levels, and overall water scarcity. The new city of Pardis, located in Iran and east of Tehran province, was built with the aim of absorbing the population overflow of Tehran province, which is facing a water crisis in a number of its phases. The scenario design for six key variables and the output of the Scenario Wizard software showed that the current water security situation in the new city of Pardis is critical, and three solutions of containment, interaction, and coexistence were proposed to solve the crisis facing the water security of the new city of Pardis.