Abstract
This research is applied in terms of purpose and analytical and exploratory in nature. In order to rank and extract the influence matrix, Micmac and Scenario Wizard software and believable modes and separation of scenarios and the spectrum of triangles were used with a foresight approach. In the first step, the purpose of identifying key drivers using PESTLE analysis and the targeted participation of 31 elite people and administrative-executive experts, 57 key drivers in 6 social and cultural (S&C), legal (L), technological (T), political (P), ecological and environmental (E&E) and economic (E) were grouped. Based on the 2759 values calculated in the initial matrix of cross-effects, 856 cases have been evaluated as high impact, 1369 cases as medium impact, 481 cases as low impact and 53 cases as neutral. According to the matrix of direct and indirect influence and potential dependence, 3 drivers are the existence of vacuum and numerous legal conflicts, geographical concentration of activities and incoherence and lack of legal order in the laws and regulations related to the control and guidance of urban development in the first rank of direct and indirect influence and 3 drivers The lack of effort to create economic development models, immigration and urbanization pressures and environmental sustainability are ranked first in direct and indirect effects. Analyzing the data related to various situations, the probability of occurrence of 11 scenarios has been considered before other scenarios, and the probability of occurrence of other scenarios has been evaluated as very insignificant and weak.
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