Abstract
Background and purpose
The quantity, quality and optimal distribution of the population in the territory and more importantly population growth is one of the influential indicators in the process of sustainable development. One of the basic challenges of the third millennium, which has involved many societies and Iran is no exception to this rule, is the problem of population, population youth policies and population goals in general. demands Iran, like other parts of the world, has entered the initial period of demographic crisis in recent years, and it is expected that this trend will intensify in the coming years if there is no revision of demographic policies and programs affecting it. It seems that the governance model of urban development plays an irreplaceable role in this regard. Based on this, this research aims to investigate the pattern of governance of urban development and its impact on population goals, trying to identify favorable and unfavorable patterns.
Methodology
The present research method is descriptive-analytical and its nature is applied-developmental. Data and information have been collected in two documentary ways (books, articles, upstream documents, statistics, etc.) and field (questionnaire from experts). The statistical population of the research includes experts and specialists in the field of urban planning and population, from among whom 100 people were selected non-randomly and purposefully (according to the time and cost of the research as well as the theoretical saturation of the data) and the questionnaire was provided to them. took The data analysis was done in two descriptive and inferential parts, in which the demographic information of the respondents was stated in the descriptive part, and in the inferential part, the independent one-sample t-test was used to calculate the obtained averages and confirm the significance of the difference. Has been used. In the final step, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was used to infer the normal distribution of the data.
Findings and discussion
In order to identify the favorable and unfavorable governance model of urban development, with emphasis on population goals, which is considered as one of the innovations of the research, the obtained data has been aggregated. Proprietary, horizontal, connected, large-scale and non-dense development is identified as a desirable urban development model, and the highest desirability is related to the large-scale development index with an average of 4.37. The total score of the indicators of the desirable urban development pattern is 3.86 with an error rate of 0.000. On the other hand, the total score of the indicators of the unfavorable pattern is 2.41, which indicates its negative effects on demographic goals and upstream documents. Patterns such as non-proprietary development with an average of 1.80 and small-scale development with an average of 1.92 are considered the most unfavorable patterns of urban development governance. In fact, the more the urban development policies and programs are based on the optimal governance model, the population goals will be achievable in the future, and the more the non-proprietary, vertical, detached, small-scale and dense urban development governance model, the more population goals will be achieved. Negative shape will affect.
Conclusion
Achieving the population goals, especially the family and youth protection law and general population policies, requires a review of development governance policies, and it is necessary to revise the upstream documents in accordance with the new patterns to avoid partial and non-integrated development of the territorial space. Avoided. In the end, things like revision of preliminary, comprehensive, detailed and guiding plans, revision of the country's housing construction plans such as the National Housing Movement Plan, formation of a special working group with the presence of urban development experts and demographic experts to formulate the ideal governance model, harm It is suggested to study the current policies and programs and formulate a new agenda to achieve the demographic goals.
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