Analysis of the Environmental Resilience of Kerman Against Carbon Emissions

Document Type : Original article

Authors

Department of Geography, Central Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

Introduction: In recent decades, amid intensifying environmental crises and rising greenhouse gas concentrations, urban resilience to climate-related threats has become a key focus of global urban policy and planning. International efforts to reduce carbon emissions and the transition to low-carbon cities highlight the need to reconsider the economic and institutional structures of urban systems. Kerman City, as one of Iran’s major industrial and mining centers, faces serious challenges, including high energy consumption, spatially unbalanced growth, and a strong reliance on industrial activity. These factors have led to a high concentration of carbon emissions and declining environmental resilience across its urban fabric. Accordingly, the present study aims to analyze and explain the economic and institutional components of carbon resilience in Kerman City, identify spatial disparities, and propose policy pathways toward low-carbon, sustainable urban development.
Materials and Methods: This research uses a purposeful and descriptive-analytical method. Data were collected from two main sources as (1) library studies to develop the theoretical framework and identify the key indicators of economic institutional resilience, and (2) field studies using a structured questionnaire to assess current conditions at the household level. The statistical population included household heads residing in Kerman City, of whom 380 individuals were selected through purposive sampling. The data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and inferential tests, including a one-sample t-test and an independent t-test, in SPSS. To identify and evaluate the spatial distribution of resilience and its relationship with carbon concentration, Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) and spatial autocorrelation techniques were employed in ArcGIS.
Results and Discussion: The results indicate that the economic and institutional dimensions of resilience in Kerman are generally above the theoretical mean and can be described as “relatively favorable.” However, significant spatial heterogeneity exists among different urban districts, suggesting an uneven distribution of resilience capacities. Residents of Districts 1 and 2 exhibit higher levels of economic resilience, while Districts 1 and 5 show stronger institutional resilience. The GWR analysis revealed that the industrial and technological sector (R² = 0.91) is the most influential factor in shaping the spatial pattern of carbon distribution, followed by population density and environmental quality. These findings emphasize that the energy-intensive industrial structure and the unequal spatial distribution of institutional services are the main drivers of spatial disparities in carbon resilience across Kerman.
Conclusion: Although the overall level of economic and institutional resilience in Kerman is acceptable, its uneven spatial distribution poses potential risks to environmental sustainability and spatial justice. Therefore, adopting an integrated urban management approach focusing on reducing energy intensity in the industrial technological sector, diversifying the urban economic structure, and strengthening institutional and social capital is essential. Targeted planning and intervention in central and deteriorated neighborhoods with lower resilience can enhance environmental justice, improve urban safety, and foster a fair transition toward sustainable urban development. Ultimately, the findings of this study provide valuable insights for designing local and regional policies to reduce carbon emissions, enhance adaptive capacity, and improve the overall resilience of Kerman City against climate-related threats.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

Allan, P., & Bryant, M. (2010). The critical role of open space in earthquake recovery: A case study. NZSEE Conference. https://www.nzsee.org.nz/db/2010/Paper_177.pdf
Arasteh, M., Baghban, A., & Baghban, S. (2020). Identifying key factors affecting urban resilience with a foresight approach in Mashhad Metropolis. Physical Development Planning, 7(2), 63-78. https://psp.journals.pnu.ac.ir/issue_1123_1161.html
Badiei, L., Ezzatpanah, B., & Soltani, A. (2019). Explaining and analyzing sustainable urban development with emphasis on environmental components (Case study: Sanandaj city). Research and Urban Planning, 10(36), 75-86. https://jupm.marvdasht.iau.ir/article_3413.html (In Persian)
Borucke, M., Moore, D., Cranston, G., Gracey, K., Iha, K., Larson, J., Lazarus, E., Morales, J. C., Wackernagel, M., & Galli, A. (2013). Accounting for demand and supply of the biosphere's regenerative capacity: The National Footprint Accounts' underlying methodology and framework. Ecological Indicators, 24, 518-533. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2012.08.005
Chavez, A., & Ramaswami, A. (2011). Progress toward low carbon cities: Approaches for transboundary GHG emissions' footprinting. Carbon Management, 2(4), 471-482. https://doi.org/10.4155/cmt.11.38
Deng, S. Z., Jalaludin, B. B., Antó, J. M., Hess, J. J., & Huang, C. R. (2020). Climate change, air pollution, and allergic respiratory diseases: A call to action for health professionals. Chinese Medical Journal, 133(13), 1552-1560. https://doi.org/10.1097/CM9.0000000000000861
Destek, M. A., & Sinha, A. (2020). Renewable, non-renewable energy consumption, economic growth, trade openness and ecological footprint: Evidence from organisation for economic Co-operation and development countries. Journal of Cleaner Production, 242, 118537. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.118537
Fong, W. K., Matsumoto, H., Ho, C. S., & Lun, Y. F. (2008). Energy consumption and carbon dioxide emission considerations in the urban planning process in Malaysia. Journal of the Malaysian Institute of Planners, 6, 101-130. https://doi.org/10.21837/pmjournal.v6.i1.68
Ghaemi Asl, M., Salimifar, M., Mahdavi Adeli, M. H., & Rajabi Mashhadi, M. (2016). Simulating the creation of a low-carbon eco-city using urban waste and photovoltaic technology: Sustainable energy planning for the urban sector of Mashhad. Urban Economics and Management, 5(1), 67-81. https://iueam.ir/article-1-611-fa.pdf (In Persian)
Haimes, Y. Y. (2009). On the definition of resilience in systems. Risk Analysis, 29(4), 498-501. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01216.x
Hammond, G. (2007). Time to give due weight to the 'carbon footprint' issue. Nature, 445(7125), 256. https://doi.org/10.1038/445256b
Heinonen, J., & Junnila, S. (2011). A carbon consumption comparison of rural and urban lifestyles. Sustainability, 3(8), 1234-1249. https://doi.org/10.3390/su3081234
Holling, C. S. (1973). Resilience and stability of ecological systems. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics, 4, 1-23. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.es.04.110173.000245
Hussain, M., Malik, R. N., & Taylor, A. (2017). Carbon footprint as an environmental sustainability indicator for the particleboard produced in Pakistan. Environmental Research, 155, 385-393. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2017.02.024 (In Persian)
Khaledi, Sh., Ghahroudi Tali, M., & Farhmand, Gh. (2020). Measuring and assessing the level of urban resilience against urban floods in Urmia city. Sustainable Development of Geographic Environment, 2(3), 169-182. https://egsdejournal.sbu.ac.ir/article_99072.html (In Persian)
Kerman Province Management and Planning Organization. (2023). The sixth economic, social and cultural development plan document of Kerman province, Volume 4: Infrastructure affairs. https://cea.kr.ir/Modules/showframework.aspx (In Persian)
Lazarus, E., Zokai, G., Borucke, M., Panda, D., Iha, K., Morales, J. C., Wackernagel, M., Galli, A., & Gupta, N. (2014). Working guidebook to the National Footprint Accounts: 2014 edition. Global Footprint Network. http://www.footprintnetwork.org/
Li, X., Tian, M., Wang, H., Wang, H., & Yu, J. (2014). Development of an ecological security evaluation method based on the ecological footprint and application to a typical steppe region in China. Ecological Indicators, 39, 153-159. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2013.12.014
Liu, W., & Song, Z. (2020). Review of studies on the resilience of urban critical infrastructure networks. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 193, 106617. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2019.106617
Lotfi, S., Sholeh, M., Farmand, M., & Fattahi, K. (2016). Developing urban design criteria for carbon-neutral neighborhoods. Negareh Journal, 1(6), 80-92. https://bsnt.modares.ac.ir/article-2-10005-fa.html (In Persian)
Luo, L., Ma, W., Zhuang, Y., Zhang, Y., Yi, S., Xu, J., & Zhang, Z. (2018). The impacts of climate change and human activities on alpine vegetation and permafrost in the Qinghai-Tibet Engineering Corridor. Ecological Indicators, 93, 24-35. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2018.04.067
Maleki, S., & Damen Bagh, S. (2017). Analysis of the concepts of environmental ethics and culture from the perspective of citizens: Case study of Islamabad Gharb city. Geography and Environmental Planning, 6(23), 41-58. https://ges.iaun.iau.ir/article_600708.html (In Persian)
Mancini, M. S., Galli, A., Niccolucci, V., Lin, D., Bastianoni, S., Wackernagel, M., & Marchettini, N. (2016). Ecological Footprint: Refining the carbon Footprint calculation. Ecological Indicators, 61, 390-403. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2015.07.020
Mitchell, T., & Harris, K. (2012). Resilience: A risk management approach. ODI Background Note. https://cdn.odi.org/media/documents/7552.pdf
Mohammadi Deh Cheshmeh, M., Ghaedi, S., & Peyvand, N. (2020). Feasibility study of zero carbon city environmental strategy in Shahrekord. Geography and Environmental Planning, 31(3), 41-60. https://gep.ui.ac.ir/article_25063.html (In Persian)
Moradi, A., & Charehjoo, F. (2021). Strategic planning of sustainable urban development with a special approach to low-carbon city (Case study: Sanandaj city). Urban Planning Quarterly, 12(46), 111-129. https://jupm.marvdasht.iau.ir/article_4063.html (In Persian)
Nelson, V., Lamboll, R., & Arendse, A. (2008). Climate change adaptation, adaptive capacity and development. Discussion Paper. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/242088443
Ntinas, G. K., Neumair, M., Tsadilas, C. D., & Meyer, J. (2017). Carbon footprint and cumulative energy demand of greenhouse and open-field tomato cultivation systems under Southern and Central European climatic conditions. Journal of Cleaner Production, 142(4), 3617-3626. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.10.106
Pan, N., Feng, X., Fu, B., Wang, S., Ji, F., & Pan, S. (2018). Increasing global vegetation browning hidden in overall vegetation greening: Insights from time-varying trends. Remote Sensing of Environment, 214, 59-72. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2018.05.018
Ramazan Zadeh Lasboei, M., Askari, A., & Badri, S. A. (2014). Infrastructures and resilience against natural disasters with emphasis on flood, case study: Kalardasht and Tonekabon sample tourism areas. Spatial Analysis of Environmental Hazards, 1(1), 35-52. https://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2313-fa.pdf (In Persian)
Sadeghi, S. K., Karimi Takalo, Z., Motefakker Azad, M. A., & Asgharpour, H. (2016). Measurement of ecological carbon footprint of urban and rural household deciles in Iran with social accounting matrix approach. Iranian Journal of Economic Research, 21(68), 163-206. https://ijer.atu.ac.ir/issue_1356_1431.html (In Persian)
Su, M. R., Chen, B., Xing, T., Chen, C., & Yang, Z. F. (2012). Development of low-carbon city in China: Where will it go? Procedia Environmental Sciences, 13, 1143-1148. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proenv.2012.01.107
Toth, G., & Szigeti, C. (2016). The historical ecological footprint: From over-population to over-consumption. Ecological Indicators, 60, 283-291. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2015.06.040
Walker, G., Karvonen, A., & Guy, S. (2015). Zero carbon homes and zero carbon living: Sociomaterial interdependencies in carbon governance. Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers, 40(4), 494-506. https://doi.org/10.1111/tran.12090
WHO. (2022). Air quality and health. World Health Organization. https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/ambient-(outdoor)-air-quality-and-health
Wiedmann, T., & Barrett, J. (2010). A review of the ecological footprint indicator—Perceptions and methods. Sustainability, 2(6), 1645-1693. https://doi.org/10.3390/su2061645
Yang, S., Jahanger, A., & Hossain, M. R. (2023). How effective has the low-carbon city pilot policy been as an environmental intervention in curbing pollution? Evidence from Chinese industrial enterprises. Energy Economics, 118, 106523. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2023.106523
Zhuo, L., Zha, Y., Zhuang, Y., & Liang, L. (2019). Data envelopment analysis for sustainability evaluation in China: Tackling the economic, environmental, and social dimensions. European Journal of Operational Research, 275(3), 1083-1095. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2018.12.004
Sustainable Development of Geographical Environment
Volume 7, Issue 14 - Serial Number 14
Autumn
September 2025
Pages 78-91

Files

Share

How to cite

Statistics