Abstract

Cities are complex systems that integrate economic, social, institutional, and environmental aspects, impacting both individual and societal well-being. By 2050, it's expected that 6.5 billion people will live in cities, representing 68% of the global population. This rapid urban growth has led to issues like pollution, infrastructure decay, and housing shortages. As these urban challenges intensify, urban research becomes increasingly crucial. Smart cities were initially developed to address issues caused by rapid urbanization, as energy shortages, traffic congestion, and pollution. These cities leverage modern technologies, like ICT IoT, improve infrastructure and resource management, aiming to enhance citizens’ quality life. However, while they offer advancements in efficiency, they may lack resilience to handle crises, and few studies explore the intersection between smartness and resilience. Current efforts to improve either smartness or resilience are fragmented, and comprehensive tools supporting both aspects are still in development. A smart city uses technology to improve life quality, while resilience helps cities absorb shocks and adapt to change. Achieving an integrated, smart, and resilient city is vital for urban sustainability. Cities can use new technologies to protect infrastructure and manage crises effectively. For smart city planning, it’s essential to consider preparedness for unexpected events, such as natural disasters. Rasht, with its high population density and aging infrastructure, faces vulnerability to natural and human-made hazards. Implementing smart infrastructure will enhance Rasht’s resilience in the present and future. Thus, the key question is what factors will drive Rasht toward becoming a more resilient and smart city, and what future scenarios are possible? paper aims to identify these driving forces and explore potential future scenarios for Rasht.The aim of the present research is to combine the characteristics of smart cities and resilient cities into a latent variable called "Resilient Smart City" in Rasht, based on a scenario-based planning approach. In regard, two key aspects have been investigated based on the existing global literature: First, what are the driving forces that influence the synthesis of a resilient smart city in city like Rasht? Second, based key uncertainties the future scenarios of this synthesis in Rasht, an evaluation has been conducted. This research follows an analytical-exploratory methodology, meaning that the research process passes through the discovery of resilience themes in a smart city and forms the intellectual foundation for developing the driving forces of a resilient smart city. These driving forces were categorized and key drivers were extracted using the MicMac software. In the third step, based on scenario-based planning, possible futures of the resilient smart city were explored using the GBN scenario-writing model by Schwartz. steps of this research are as follows: 1) identification of the driving forces for the realization of a resilient smart city; 2) identification of key driving forces; 3) identification of critical uncertainties; 4) selection of the scenario logic (space); 5) enriching the scenarios (storylines); 6) identification of themes and outcomes of the scenarios; 7) selection of indicators and guiding signals. The data collection method in the first stage was based on documentary and library studies. The underlying categories of the driving forces were formulated using thematic analysis and Maxqda 2020 software. In the second and third stages (futures studies), the Delphi method was used in two rounds (forming a cross-impact matrix and identifying key uncertainties) with a sample of 25 experts. theoretical foundation of the present study is based on six dimensions of smart cities, which are combined with the concept of resilience. The selected drivers emphasize both urban smartness and urban resilience. The mission of a smart city is to solve urban problems through technology and innovative methods. In fact, recognizing the scenarios of a smart resilient city visualizes possible futures and guides planning and policymaking toward the best possible outcome. In recent decades, Rasht become increasingly fragile in terms of sustainability indicators, and concerns about the future of this northern green city have been growing. The findings section details scenarios, identifying the key drivers and uncertainties involved. Two uncertainties—technology governance and urban sustainable development—lead to four possible scenarios for Rasht’s smart resilient city. The path towards these scenarios will shape the city’s near future in different ways. The relationship between technology and sustainable development is crucial in achieving a smart and resilient city,