Foresight of a Resilient Smart City Based on Scenario Planning (Case Study: Rasht City)

Document Type : original Article

Authors

1 Department of Urban Planning, Faculty of Architecture and Art, University of Guilan, Rasht, Iran

2 Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Faculty of Geography, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran:

Abstract

Background and Purpose: This study focuses on converging two pivotal urban development paradigms—smart cities and urban resilience—aiming to propose an integrated framework for sustainable urban transformation. While previous research has often examined these concepts separately, this work adopts a foresight-based approach, employing scenario planning to explore plausible futures for the city of Rasht. This methodology enables the identification of key uncertainties and the development of future-oriented scenarios, contributing to the growing body of knowledge on resilient and smart urban planning. Rasht, a rapidly growing city facing aging infrastructure, is highly vulnerable to natural and anthropogenic hazards. As such, enhancing its resilience through the implementation of smart infrastructure
Methodology: This research adopts a scenario-based planning approach to develop the concept of a Resilient Smart City in Rasht. The study focuses on two main questions: What drives Rasht’s evolution into a resilient smart city? What potential scenarios could shape Rasht’s future in this transformation? The research follows an analytical-exploratory methodology, starting by investigating the concept of resilience in the context of smart cities, which provides the intellectual foundation for identifying the driving forces behind the creation of a resilient smart city. The driving forces were identified and categorized using MicMac software, while scenario planning was used to develop possible future scenarios based on the GBN scenario-planning model. The driving forces were categorized using thematic analysis via Maxqda 2020 software. In subsequent phases, the Delphi method was applied in two rounds with 25 urban experts to gather insights and identify key uncertainties.
Findings and Discussion: The identified driving forces emphasize the need to focus on smartness and resilience in urban development. The role of a smart city is to utilize technological innovations to tackle urban challenges, while a resilient city focuses on its ability to absorb shocks and adapt to changes. By understanding the possible scenarios of a resilient smart city, urban planners can craft effective policies and strategies for Rasht’s future. The findings reveal four possible future scenarios for Rasht, driven by two key uncertainties: Governance of technology, and Sustainable urban development. The Golden Scenario represents the best possible outcome, where both uncertainties are effectively addressed, leading to an ideal future for Rasht. In contrast, the Dark Age Scenario represents the worst-case scenario, where poor governance and limited sustainable development led to urban decline. The study emphasizes that future planning for Rasht should focus on avoiding negative scenarios and strengthening both technology governance and sustainability. Effective governance and stakeholder engagement are crucial for achieving a smart and resilient urban future for the city.
Conclusion: This study highlights the critical role of integrating smart city initiatives with resilience strategies to ensure sustainable urban development in Rasht. The findings indicate that the city's future is highly dependent on two key uncertainties: technology governance and sustainable urban development. By leveraging smart technologies while fostering resilient urban planning, Rasht can enhance its ability to adapt to challenges and mitigate potential risks. The proposed scenarios provide a roadmap for policymakers, emphasizing the need for proactive governance, stakeholder collaboration, and technological innovation. Ultimately, achieving the "Golden Scenario" requires strategic investments in digital infrastructure, sustainable practices, and inclusive urban policies, ensuring a future where Rasht thrives as a resilient and smart city.
 

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References

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Sustainable Development of Geographical Environment
Volume 7, Issue 12 - Serial Number 12
Spring
March 2025
Pages 1-13

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