A Meta-Analysis of Affordable Housing Provision Studies for Low-Income Households in Iran

Introduction: Housing represents a fundamental human necessity and a pillar of sustainable development. Rapid urbanization and population growth have increased the number of households, thereby escalating the demand for urban housing. Currently, housing provision is increasingly shaped by market forces rather than strategic planning, leading to adverse outcomes like land shortages, urban sprawl, and sectoral imbalances. Given that urban growth patterns significantly impact human health and environmental resources, providing housing—particularly for low-income populations—is a primary governmental concern. In post-revolutionary Iran, various policies aimed to address these shortages. A notable initiative was the “Mehr Housing Project” during the ninth and tenth administrations. However, implementation failures and unfulfilled commitments in provinces like East/West Azerbaijan, Khuzestan, and Ardabil undermined its overall effectiveness. In recent years, demographic shifts toward smaller households, economic downturns, and the commodification of housing have reignited the urgency for academic and policy-driven interventions.
Materials and Methods: This research employs a meta-analysis to review to conduct a comprehensive review of Iranian housing studies from 2001 to 2024. The statistical population was sourced from major databases including the Comprehensive Humanities Portal, SID, and Noormags. Selection criteria were rigorous, requiring Pearson correlation coefficients, defined sample sizes, and specific research variables. From the initial pool, 30 qualified studies were selected. Data were processed using SPSS22 and CMA2 to determine effect sizes. To ensure statistical integrity, the research employed the Q homogeneity test, funnel plots for publication bias, and Kendall’s Tau. A random-effects model was specifically chosen to account for the inherent heterogeneity across the diverse studies.
Results and Discussion: The results show that research on low-income housing in Iran began in 2004 and declined until 2017, a trend that parallels the implementation period of the Mehr Housing Project. However, research surged between 2017 and 2023 due to emerging implementation failures, economic challenges, and demographic shifts toward smaller households. Geographically, 70% of studies were provincial, 20% urban, and 10% national. Methodologically, 50% were practical and 40% descriptive-analytical, primarily using questionnaires and surveys (60%) to gather data from specialists and residents. Statistical analysis via the Q test confirmed study heterogeneity, justifying the random-effects model. With no significant publication bias detected, the average effect size was calculated at 0.59. According to Cohen’s criteria, this represents a moderate yet statistically significant relationship between the studied variables, indicating that while housing policies had an impact, their practical effectiveness remains at a medium level.
Conclusion: The meta-analysis demonstrates that governmental policies have deeply influenced both research trends and the lived reality of housing. While programs like "Mehr" intended to support the poor, they were marred by regional imbalances and construction delays. The shift of housing from a social right to an investment commodity has only intensified the crisis. The findings conclude that housing provision in Iran has reached a moderate level of success but remains insufficient. To achieve true spatial and social justice, the government must move away from purely market-driven mechanisms and implement targeted policymaking, integrated spatial planning, and sustainable financial instruments