with an Emphasis on Urban Morphology and Environmental Sustainability: The Case Study of Dubai

Introduction: The aim of this study is to examine the function of the metaverse in simulating crisis scenarios and to evaluate its role in enhancing urban decision-making, with a focus on its implications for urban morphology and environmental sustainability in the city of Dubai. Due to its rapid urban growth, implementation of large-scale development projects, and substantial investment in advanced technologies, Dubai is considered one of the world’s most advanced cities on the path toward smart urban development and can serve as an appropriate model for applying the metaverse in crisis management. The city faces various types of crises, including environmental challenges, limitations on natural resources, and transportation-related issues—crises that often occur suddenly and require fast, accurate, and data-driven decisions. In such circumstances, the metaverse, as an interactive three-dimensional digital environment, enables the simulation of different crisis scenarios before they occur in reality and allows the impacts of managerial decisions to be evaluated in a safe and controlled setting. The use of this technology can enhance the predictive, analytical, and responsive capacities of urban managers during critical situations while reducing decision-making risks.
Materials and Methods: This study adopts a quantitative, explanatory–applied approach to examine the role of the metaverse in redesigning urban morphology and enhancing environmental sustainability in Dubai. The methodological framework is based on testing causal relationships among theoretical constructs using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). Metaverse-based scenario building and simulation were employed to operationalize morphological variables and reinforce the quantitative analysis. The study population comprised urban planning and design experts, including managers and technical specialists working in Dubai Municipality, the Smart Dubai Office, and institutions involved in urban development as well as digital twin and metaverse projects. Stratified random sampling proportional to organizational representation was applied. Sample size was determined using Cohen’s formula with a significance level of 0.05 and statistical power of 0.80, yielding a minimum of 220 respondents; to account for potential attrition, 250 valid questionnaires were analyzed. Data were collected through a researcher-designed questionnaire consisting of 30 items across four main constructs. Analysis was conducted using SmartPLS version 4. The measurement model was first assessed, followed by evaluation of the structural model using path coefficients, coefficients of determination (R²), predictive relevance (Q²), effect sizes (f²), and bootstrapping with 5,000 resamples. The overall goodness-of-fit index (GOF = 0.65) indicated a strong model fit. External validity was supported by aligning the results with spatial data and urban development reports of Dubai, including Expo 2020.
Results and Discussion: The results of the structural equation modeling indicate that the research model demonstrates strong fit and explanatory power, with an overall goodness-of-fit value of GOF = 0.65. The measurement model shows adequate quality, as all constructs report AVE values above 0.50 and both composite reliability and Cronbach’s alpha exceed 0.70. In the structural model, the coefficients of determination are R² = 0.67 for environmental sustainability, R² = 0.59 for urban morphology, and R² = 0.54 for socio-economic outcomes. Path coefficients reveal that metaverse application has a direct and significant effect on environmental sustainability (β = 0.42), which is further strengthened through urban morphological change (β = 0.35). Socio-economic outcomes show positive but mainly indirect effects, emerging after morphological adjustments are implemented.
Conclusion: This study concludes that the metaverse represents an effective and reliable framework for urban planning and design in Dubai, particularly when applied to the reconfiguration of urban morphology. The findings demonstrate that environmental sustainability is achieved mainly through measurable spatial and morphological transformations rather than through social or economic factors alone. By enabling scenario-based simulations and data-driven evaluation of urban form, the metaverse reduces planning risks and supports informed decision-making. Consequently, integrating metaverse-based tools into urban policy can provide a strategic pathway for sustainable urban development, with urban morphology serving as the core lever for long-term environmental improvement.