تدوین الگوی تاب آوری کالبدی در برابر زلزله با تاکید بر نظام برنامه ریزی شهری (نمونه مورد مطالعه:منطقه 19 تهران)

Background and Objectives
Earthquakes, as one of the greatest natural threats to metropolises such as Tehran, have always caused serious damage to physical and social structures. District 19 of Tehran is known to be one of the most vulnerable areas during earthquakes due to its high population density, dilapidated residential areas, inadequate infrastructure network, and location on high-risk fault zones. So far, urban policies in Iran have mainly focused on physical development, and the dimensions of resilience in the face of natural hazards have received less attention in these programs. The present study, with the aim of providing a comprehensive model for increasing the physical resilience of District 19 of Tehran against earthquakes, has examined the role of three key factors, including the ineffectiveness of the governance system, technological capacity, and social participation, in confronting this challenge.
Methods
This study was conducted with a qualitative approach and using the grounded theory method, and data were collected through semi-structured interviews with 20 experts in the field of crisis management, urban managers, and social activists in Region 19. The extracted data were analyzed at three levels of open, axial, and selective coding and presented in the form of a paradigmatic model. Five main axes were identified, including causal factors (such as institutional gaps), contextual factors (including lack of resources and weak infrastructure), intervening factors (such as lack of binding laws), strategies (such as governance and technology transformation), and consequences (improving resilience). The findings showed that factors such as a 40% reduction in the retrofitting budget, despite identifying 35% of the region's buildings in high-risk areas, weakness in information and regulatory transparency, and the lack of legal solutions to attract the participation of non-governmental organizations, are among the main obstacles to risk management. On the other hand, the use of new technologies, including artificial intelligence monitoring systems for structures (IMSS) and the use of advanced simulation tools, were proposed as key strategies to accelerate the identification of vulnerabilities and crisis management.
In addition, special emphasis was placed on spatial justice in the proposed programs, especially prioritizing the southern neighborhoods of Region 19 in the distribution of relief resources and infrastructure. The use of mechanisms such as the establishment of joint citizen-urban management working groups and training local volunteers to monitor infrastructure damage were also recognized as the most important complementary approaches.

Findings and Discussion
The research findings indicate that the physical resilience of Region 19 to earthquakes requires redefining the interactions between the governance system and the local community. For example, the evaluation of the consequences of implementing smart systems for identifying vulnerable structures showed that the time to identify unsafe buildings was reduced from 72 hours to 4 hours, and the launch of such infrastructure could increase the resilience index of the region from 2.6 to 4.1. In addition, the equitable distribution of relief resources in poor neighborhoods in the south of the region has reduced the distance of access of the vulnerable population to relief services from 2.5 km to less than 800 meters. On the other hand, the findings indicate that the lack of transparency in budget allocation, conflict of institutional interests, and weakness in the implementation of laws related to building retrofitting are among the most important management challenges that have a significant impact on reducing the effectiveness of resilient programs.
Conclusion
The results of this study emphasize that achieving higher levels of resilience in high-risk areas such as District 19 of Tehran requires moving towards more comprehensive models. These models should integrate elements of physical retrofitting, technological transformation, spatial justice, and active citizen participation. Based on the findings of this study, strategies such as establishing joint working groups between urban management and residents to increase transparency, designing real-time monitoring systems for the condition of structures, and focusing on poor areas in reconstruction programs can significantly reduce vulnerability. Although these strategies have a high potential to effectively change conditions, their implementation requires coordination between policymakers, executives, and the local community. Finally, it is suggested that these programs be tested in local pilot projects, especially in the Afsariyeh neighborhood, to ensure their practical impact.