ارزیابی پتانسیل خطر بیابان‌زایی با استفاده از مدل سازشی تاکسنومی فازی در محیط GIS در زیر حوضه آبخیز یزد- خضرآباد

نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه محیط زیست، واحد تاکستان، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی ، تاکستان، ایران

2 گروه احیاء مناطق خشک و کوهستانی، دانشکده منابع طبیعی دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

چکیده

مقدمه: پدیده بیابان‌زایی یکی از جدی‌ترین بحران‌های اکولوژیکی است که کنترل آن از دغدغه‌های ملی محسوب می‌شود. با توجه به گسترش روزافزون این پدیده و ظهور اثرات گسترده و بلندمدت آن بر محیط­زیست و فعالیت­های انسانی، در چارچوب مدیریت عرصه‌های بیابانی، ارائه روش­های مدیریتی مناسب، قادر است شدت و گسترش این پدیده را کاهش ­دهد و مانع پرداخت هزینه­های گزاف تصمیم­گیری نادرست شود. لذا اقدامات اجرایی در این زمینه باید متکی به شناخت وضعیت فعلی بیابانی شدن اراضی و شدت آن باشد؛ بنابراین پژوهش حاضر با هدف ارزیابی و پهنه‌بندی رخداد بیابان‌زایی در زیر حوضه آبخیز یزد – خضرآباد با استفاده از مدل‌های تصمیم‌گیری چند شاخصه و تکنیک سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی به صورت موردی در زیرحوضه یزد- خضرآباد طی سال‌های 1402 تا 1403 به انجام رسید.
مواد و روش‌ها: در این پژوهش سعی شد این مهم توسط روش تاکسنومی فازی به انجام برسد. ازاین‌رو پس از تعیین اعضاء تیم تصمیم‌گیری تشکیل شده از متخصصان آشنا به منطقه مطالعاتی، شاخص­های مؤثر از روش دلفی فازی تعیین و ارزش‌دهی شد. به‌منظور انتخاب این شاخص­ها سه محور اصلی ارتباط با پدیده بیابان‌زایی، سهولت دسترسی و سهولت به‌روزآوری در چارچوب دو فاکتور هزینه و زمان مدنظر قرار گرفت. سپس به منظور تهیه چارچوبی مناسب جهت تهیه نقشه پهنه­بندی آسیب­پذیری ناشی از فرایند بیابان‌زایی اقدام به تفکیک واحدهای کاری از روش ژئومورفولوژی و در محیط نرم‌افزار Arc Gis، شد. در ادامه اقدام به فازی­سازی داده­ها از روش چن و هوانگ شد و فرایند تحلیل فازی بر روی داده­ها صورت گرفت. پس از برآورد اعداد فازی ذوزنقه­ای ترکیبی، اقدام به فازی­زدایی و تشکیل ماتریس تصمیم‌گیری شد و در ادامه در چارچوب ماتریس تصمیم­گیری فازی و از روش تاکسنومی، شدت بیابان­زایی برآورد شد. در نهایت به منظور سهولت و دقت در تجزیه‌وتحلیل داده­ها و دستیابی به نتایج، بر مبنای درجه تاکسنومیک واحدهای کاری و با استفاده از نرم‌افزار Arc view3.2a اقدام به نقشه­سازی میزان پتانسیل بیابان­زایی شد.
نتایج و بحث: پس از تعیین ماتریس تصمیم­گیری فازی موزون، مطابق ادبیات تحقیق فاصله تاکسنومیک (gi) و درجه تاکسنومیک (yi) یا به عبارتی شدت بیابان‌زایی به تفکیک واحدهای کاری به دست آمد. در نهایت به منظور سهولت در خواندن و فهمیدن نتایج برآورد شده و نشان دادن تفاوت­های ناحیه­ای آسیب‌پذیری نسبت به بیابان­زایی، نقشه­ نهایی پتانسیل شدت بیابان‌زایی بر مبنای ارزش­های شدت بیابان‌زایی (yi) واحدهای کاری شکل گرفت. مطالعات انجام شده نشان داد که 72/35 درصد از کل منطقه مطالعاتی به صورت خیلی شدید و 28/ 17 درصد به صورت شدید تحت فرایند بیابان‌زایی می­باشد و بیابان‌زایی با شدت متوسط (32/36 درصد) بیشترین سهم را در منطقه مطالعاتی به خود اختصاص داده است. به‌طورکلی ارزش کمی شدت بیابان‌زایی برای کل منطقه از مجموع عوامل 74/0 در کلاس شدید یا VI ارزیابی شد.
نتیجه‌گیری: مطالعه صورت گرفته نشان از کارایی و سهولت کاربرد منطق فازی در قالب مدل تاکسنومی در ارزیابی شدت بیابان‌زایی داشت. همچنین نتایج این پژوهش امکان برنامه­ریزی را برای به حداقل رساندن بیابان‌زایی در اثر انجام طرح­های توسعه فراهم می­سازد و می­تواند شرایطی را ایجاد کند که با توجه به اولویت­ها و پهنه­بندی آسیب­پذیری منطقه مطالعاتی، تعادل بین طرح­های توسعه و محیط امکان‌پذیر گردد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Assessing Desertification Risk Potential Using Fuzzy Taxonomy Adaptive Model in GIS Environment in Yazd-Khazarabad Sub-basin

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammad Hassan Sadeghiravesh 1
  • Hassan Khosravi 2
1 Department of Environment, Tak.C., Islamic Azad University, Takestan, Iran.
2 Department of Arid and Mountainous Regions Reclamation, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Introduction: Desertification is one of the most serious ecological crises, and its control is considered a national concern. Given the increasing spread of this phenomenon and its extensive, long-term effects on the environment and human activities, appropriate management methods within the framework of desert management can reduce its intensity and spread, and prevent the high costs of incorrect decision-making. Therefore, implementation measures in this field should be based on understanding the current state of desertification and its severity. Thus, the present study aimed to evaluate and map the desertification event using multi-attribute decision-making models and geographic information system techniques, as a case study in the Yazd-Khazarabad sub-basin during 2023 to 2024.
Materials and Methods: In this research, an attempt was made to accomplish this using the fuzzy taxonomy method. Therefore, after identifying the decision-making team, consisting of experts familiar with the study area, effective indices were identified and evaluated using the fuzzy Delphi method. In order to select these indicators, three main axes of relationship with the desertification phenomenon, ease of access, and ease of updating were considered within the framework of two factors as cost and time. Then, to prepare a suitable framework for the zoning map of desertification process vulnerability, work units were separated using the geomorphological method in the ArcGIS software environment. The data were fuzzy using the Chen and Huang methods. The fuzzy analysis process was performed on the data. After estimating the combined trapezoidal fuzzy numbers, defuzzification was performed, and the decision matrix was formed. Then, using the fuzzy decision matrix and the TAXONOMY method, the intensity of desertification was estimated. Finally, to facilitate data analysis and achieve results, a mapping of desertification potential was carried out based on the taxonomic level of the working units using ArcView 3.2a.
Results and Discussion: After determining the balanced fuzzy decision matrix, according to the research literature, taxonomic distance (gi) and taxonomic degree (yi), or in other words, desertification intensity, were obtained by separating the working units. Finally, to facilitate the reading and understanding of the estimated results and to show regional differences in vulnerability to desertification, a final map of potential desertification intensity was produced based on the desertification intensity (yi) values of the working units. The results showed that 35.72% and 17.28% of the study area were located in very high and high desertification classes, respectively. Moderately severe desertification (36.32 percent) has the largest share in the study area. In general, the quantitative value of desertification intensity for the entire area was evaluated at 0.74 in the high (IV) class based on the total factors.
Conclusion: The study demonstrated the efficiency and ease of application of fuzzy logic, in the form of a taxonomy model, for assessing the intensity of desertification. The results of this study provide the possibility of planning to minimize desertification resulting from development projects and can create conditions for balancing development plans and the environment based on the study area's priorities and vulnerability zoning.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Decision Making
  • Hierarchical Structure
  • Fuzzy Taxonomy Model
  • Pairwise Comparison

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فصلنامه علمی توسعه پایدار محیط جغرافیایی
دوره 7، شماره 14 - شماره پیاپی 14
پاییز
مهر 1404
صفحه 15-32

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