نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی
نویسندگان
گروه جغرافیا، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد چالوس، چالوس، ایران.
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
1.Background and purpose
In the contemporary era, urban management faces increasing complexities, highlighting the urgent need for effective integration between overarching policies, medium-term plans, and annual budgets. Islamshahr, as part of the Tehran metropolitan region, has absorbed a significant volume of migrants in recent decades. However, the lack of macro-level planning commensurate with this rapid growth has led to challenges such as population and building density. Municipal strategic-operational plans are recognized as key tools for achieving sustainable development and improving citizens' quality of life. Nevertheless, the effectiveness of these plans is consistently influenced by numerous and complex factors. Therefore, identifying and prioritizing the key drivers that enhance the effectiveness of these plans—particularly through a futurology approach—has become an essential need for urban management in Islamshahr. The main research question is: Which factors play the most significant role in the feasibility and efficiency of strategic-operational plans for the city and municipality of Islamshahr?
2.Methods
This study is applied in purpose and employs a mixed (descriptive-analytical) methodology within a futurology framework. Data were collected through documentary methods (review of library resources and articles) and field methods (questionnaires). The statistical population consisted of 25 experts and specialists in urban management and planning (including urban managers, city council members, provincial office experts, and university professors). After extracting influential indicators from theoretical foundations and refining them using the Delphi method, the Cross-Impact Matrix (MICMAC) was utilized to analyze the direct and indirect influence and dependence of variables across five dimensions: Structural-Organizational, Process-Planning, Resource-Economic, Environmental-Stakeholder Participation, and Specialized-Technical.
3.Findings and discussion
The matrix fill rate ranged between 90% and 91.67%, indicating a high density of relationships among variables. In the Structural-Organizational dimension, "Relative Autonomy of the Municipality and Interdependence," "Restructuring and Reorganization," and "Coordination among Organizational Units" were identified as the most influential drivers. In the Process-Planning dimension, "Information Technology and Knowledge Management," "Precise Definition of Goals and Vision," and "Coordination among Units and Related Organizations" ranked highest. In the Resource-Economic dimension, "Diversification of Revenue Sources," "Financial and Budget Transparency," and "Resilient Financial Policies" had the greatest impact. In the Environmental-Stakeholder Participation and Specialized-Technical dimensions, factors such as "Institutional Collaboration," "Information Transparency," and "Specialized Capacities and Up-to-Date Data" emerged as key drivers.
4. Conclusion
The findings reveal that the effectiveness system of strategic-operational plans in Islamshahr is primarily influenced by governance/organizational and process drivers, while financial, participatory, and technical drivers play complementary roles. The most critical final key drivers include: decentralization, restructuring and reorganization, precise goal definition, information technology and knowledge management, revenue source diversification, financial transparency, attention to socio-economic conditions, and enhancement of specialized capacities. This study corroborates that in Islamshahr, citizen participation is more a consequence of improved governance, transparency, and communication than a primary cause. Furthermore, the relative autonomy of the municipality, as a highly influential variable, underscores the importance of reducing financial-administrative dependencies and strengthening local decision-making. Finally, practical solutions such as establishing cross-sectoral coordination mechanisms, implementing management dashboards, diversifying revenue streams, and deploying integrated urban data systems are proposed to enhance plan effectiveness.
On one hand, these findings align with previous studies emphasizing transparency, participation, integration, and institutional support. On the other hand, the "futuristic framework and structural MICMAC analysis" revealed significant distinctions. Contrary to some views, "citizen participation" in Islamshahr was identified as an "affective" variable whose success depends on prerequisites such as transparency, institutional cooperation, and access to information. It is recommended that practical solutions—such as forming integrated committees, implementing project and data management systems, diversifying revenue sources, and designing targeted participation mechanisms—be directly designed and implemented based on these drivers. These insights can substantially assist urban managers and planners in formulating and executing more effective operational plans.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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