فراتحلیل مطالعات تأمین مسکن گروه های کم درآمد ایران

Housing is a fundamental human right and a cornerstone of sustainable development. In Iran, rapid urbanization and population growth have escalated demand, yet supply remains dominated by market mechanisms over comprehensive planning. This has resulted in critical challenges: a severe shortage of affordable land, uncontrolled urban sprawl, socio-spatial inequalities, and the transformation of housing into a speculative commodity rather than a social good. Consequently, providing adequate housing, particularly for low-income groups, has become a paramount concern for policymakers, intertwining with issues of public health, environmental sustainability, and social justice.

Post-revolution Iranian governments have initiated various policies to address housing shortages. The most notable was the Mehr Housing Project, launched in the 2000s under the ninth and tenth administrations. It aimed to provide mass housing for low-income families through free land allocation and public-private partnerships. Initially a flagship program, its implementation revealed significant flaws, including regional disparities, construction delays, inadequate infrastructure, and unmet commitments in provinces like East and West Azerbaijan, Ardabil, Khuzestan, and Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari. These shortcomings diminished the project's efficacy and exacerbated local grievances. Subsequent demographic shifts—such as a trend towards smaller, nuclear families—coupled with persistent economic instability, inflation, and the entrenched perception of housing as an investment asset, have perpetuated the affordability crisis, keeping housing at the forefront of academic and political discourse.

This study employs a meta-analytic methodology to synthesize quantitative findings from Iranian research on low-income housing provision between 2001 and 2024. The analysis systematically reviewed studies from major national scientific databases (e.g., SID, Magiran, Noormags). Selection criteria required studies to report measurable statistical data (like correlation coefficients) and clear sample details. Thirty studies met the inclusion criteria. Their data were extracted and analyzed using SPSS and Comprehensive Meta-Analysis (CMA) software to compute individual and combined effect sizes, a statistical measure indicating the strength and direction of observed relationships. To ensure methodological rigor, the Cochran’s Q test assessed study heterogeneity, while funnel plots and Kendall’s Tau test evaluated potential publication bias. Given confirmed heterogeneity, a random-effects model was adopted for the final synthesis, providing a more conservative and generalizable estimate.

The findings reveal a distinct temporal pattern in research activity, closely mirroring policy cycles. Publication output declined between 2004-2017, a period coinciding with the active phase of the Mehr Housing Project. A resurgence occurred from 2017-2023, likely triggered by the project's visible shortcomings and the intensification of the housing crisis. Geographically, 70% of studies were province-level, 20% city-level, and 10% national. Methodologically, half adopted an applied approach, 40% were descriptive-analytical, and 10% qualitative. Data primarily came from questionnaires, surveys, and expert interviews, with housing specialists constituting half of the study populations.

Statistical tests confirmed significant heterogeneity among studies, validating the random-effects model. No substantial publication bias was detected. The core finding is the combined effect size of 0.59. According to standard benchmarks (Cohen’s criteria), this represents a moderate effect magnitude. It indicates that the aggregate of examined variables—such as policy interventions, financial tools, and planning frameworks—has had a statistically significant but moderately impactful relationship with successful housing provision for low-income groups in Iran.

In conclusion, this meta-analysis demonstrates that state policies, exemplified by the Mehr Housing Project, have profoundly shaped both research agendas and on-ground housing outcomes. However, the moderate effect size (0.59) underscores a legacy of partial success. Ambitious policies have been consistently undermined by implementation deficits, lack of spatial integration, unsustainable financing, and failure to adapt to local contexts. The conversion of housing into a capital good and ongoing economic volatility have further deepened affordability gaps. Therefore, achieving spatial and social equity in housing necessitates structural reforms. Moving forward, Iran must transition towards integrated, evidence-based planning that prioritizes infill development and urban regeneration over sprawl. It must develop diverse, sustainable financial instruments (e.g., housing microfinance) and enact targeted, localized policies that de-commodify housing and address the specific needs of low-income populations. Without such foundational shifts, the goal of "housing for all" will remain elusive.