Introduction: Desalination plants in southern coastal Iran are critical infrastructures, strategically aligned with national development goals to combat water scarcity. Given their operational nature and strategic locations, these facilities face a diverse array of emerging hazards, ranging from hard threats, such as missile and aerial strikes, to soft threats, including geopolitical conflicts and sanctions. Since any disruption in these facilities could lead to irreparable socioeconomic and security crises, a systematic hazard analysis through a passive defense lens is essential. Such an approach is both a technical requirement and a governance priority to guarantee operational continuity and bolster national resilience during crises.
Materials and Methods: To transcend superficial analyses and achieve a profound understanding of expert perceptions, this study utilized Q-Methodology. The fundamental advantage of this framework over traditional quantitative approaches lies in its capacity to identify and categorize the Subjectivity of experts regarding multidimensional phenomena. The research was operationalized through several systematic phases. Initially, to establish a comprehensive Concourse, an extensive review of theoretical literature was conducted, complemented by in depth interviews with elite experts in passive defense and the water industry.This phase led to the identification of 141 initial hazard-related statements. In the second stage, these statements were refined with high scientific rigor, resulting in a final Q-set of 65 core hazards in passive defense. These statements were then presented to the participants for the Q-sorting process based on their prioritized strategic perspectives. Unlike conventional surveys, this methodology enabled the internal cognitive structures of experts to be represented as robust mathematical and factor-analytical models, providing deeper insight into the hierarchy of threats.
Results and Discussion: The empirical data analysis revealed that among the 141 initial statements, four distinct and dominant thematic perspectives were identified through exploratory factor analysis. This analytical output resulted in the extraction of 65 primary factors identified as the most critical hazards threatening desalination facilities. A key innovation of this research was evaluating these hazards within a specialized, seven dimensional framework. These hazards were analyzed based on seven vital layers: Historical Occurrence, Probability of Realization, Attractiveness to Attackers, Impact Severity, Mitigation Difficulty, Scope of Damage, and Recovery Duration. This granular layering demonstrated that hazards in coastal infrastructure possess a hybrid nature due to unique environmental and geopolitical characteristics. The findings indicate that modern threats have shifted from physic al sabotage to sophisticated cyber-physical and supply chain vulnerabilities, requiring a paradigm shift in protective strategies for maritime critical infrastructure.
‌Conclusion:By identifying security blind spots within the design and operational processes of desalination infrastructure, this study proved that Q-methodology is a highly efficient tool for extracting complex conceptual frameworks in national risk management.The findings serve as a strategic Executive Roadmap for senior managers and policymakers in the defense and water sectors. It enables them to calibrate proactive measures based on real-world priorities and expert-driven mental models. The results underscore that enhancing Resilience and maintaining the continuity of these desalination arteries requires the integration of this seven-layered model into sovereign protective regulations and security protocols. Ultimately, this research provides a new paradigm for the intelligent management of coastal infrastructure, ensuring the long-term sustainable security of the country's water resources against modern asymmetric threats.