تحلیل ظرفیت تاب آوری زیرساخت های حیاتی در مناطق آسیب پذیر از تغییرات اقلیمی: مطالعه ای در استان خوزستان

Background and purpose
The resilience approach has gained an important place in various sciences, including urban and regional studies, during the last two decades. This matter is very important in the balanced, flexible and wise arrangement of the basic infrastructures, especially in the areas that are exposed to climate change and the damages caused by it. The research literature shows that many analytical models and frameworks have been presented to measure the resilience of vital and infrastructure systems. One of the most important models for evaluating the quality and capacity of resilience in infrastructure systems is the resilience adaptation cycle model. Considering the importance of resilience of critical infrastructures in Khuzestan province, this research has explained the resilience capacity of critical infrastructures in this province using this model.
Methodology
For the collection of descriptive data, documentary and library studies were used, and for the analytical data part, a survey method was used in the form of a targeted Delphi method. In this regard, the opinions of 30 experts and specialists were used in two stages, in the field of resilience of critical infrastructures and urban and regional planning. The first stage is to explain and explain the subject, model stages, indicators related to each of them and confirmation by experts, and the second stage is to weigh and measure the quality of the province's vital infrastructures in 5 infrastructures of electricity, gas, water, telecommunications and transportation. The basis of the resilience adaptation cycle model and the constituent indicators of the stages of the model have been discussed. To analyze the opinions of experts and outputs, the model of similarity to the fuzzy ideal option has been used.
Findings and discussion
The analysis of the results related to the indicators of the collapse stage as the first stage in the resilience adaptation cycle model for the critical infrastructures of the province when hazards occur shows that the critical electricity infrastructure has the lowest weight in all indicators and subsequently weak. It is the highest quality from the point of view of resilience, and from the point of view of the mentioned indicators, it has the priority of improvement. The analysis of the resilience capacity of the province's vital infrastructures in the reorganization stage as the second stage of the resilience adaptation cycle model shows that the electricity infrastructure has the weakest and lowest rank in all the indicators of this stage. It shows the low resilience of this infrastructure in Khuzestan province. The productivity stage is the third stage in the resilience adaptation cycle model to measure the resilience capacity of critical infrastructures in the province, and the results of this stage indicate that the critical electricity infrastructure has the lowest rating and the weakest quality in terms of resilience, just like the previous stages. Is. The balance stage is the last stage and the most complete stage in the resilience adaptation cycle model, the status of its indicators for the critical infrastructures of Khuzestan province shows that the open power facilities have the lowest weights and the weakest quality from the perspective of resilience. It is in the equilibrium stage.
Conclusion
The results of this research show that among the vital infrastructures of the province, the electricity infrastructure had an unfavorable condition from the point of view of resilience in all four stages of the model. After this infrastructure, the water infrastructure had a worse condition and received the lowest weights. Also, the infrastructures of gas, telecommunications and transportation, respectively, obtained the third to fifth ranks of resilience in the form of the resilience adaptation cycle model in the province. The final analysis of the quality of critical infrastructures of the province from the point of view of the stages of the resilience adaptation cycle model showed that the reorganization stage has the weakest quality and subsequently has a higher priority for planning in order to improve the quality of infrastructural resilience in Khuzestan province. The results of this research can pave the way for policies based on the resilient design of the province's vital infrastructure against natural hazards caused by climate change.