تدوین الگوی تاب‌آوری کالبدی در برابر زلزله با تأکید بر نظام برنامه‌ریزی شهری (نمونه موردمطالعه: منطقه 19 تهران)

Introduction: Earthquakes, among the greatest natural threats to metropolises such as Tehran, have always caused serious damage to physical and social structures. District 19 of Tehran is known to be one of the most vulnerable areas during earthquakes due to its high population density, dilapidated residential areas, inadequate infrastructure network, and location on high-risk fault zones. So far, urban policies in Iran have mainly focused on physical development, and the resilience dimensions in the face of natural hazards have received less attention in these programs. The present study, to provide a comprehensive model for increasing the physical resilience of District 19 of Tehran against earthquakes, has examined the role of three key factors, including the ineffectiveness of the governance system, technological capacity, and social participation, in confronting this challenge.
Materials and Methods: This study employed a qualitative grounded theory approach and collected data through semi-structured interviews with 20 experts in crisis management, urban managers, and social activists in District 19. The extracted data were analyzed at three levels of open, axial, and selective coding and presented in the form of a paradigmatic model. Five main axes were identified as causal factors (such as institutional gaps), contextual factors (including resource shortages and weak infrastructure), intervening factors (such as the lack of binding laws), strategies (such as governance and technology transformation), and consequences (improving resilience). The findings showed that factors such as a 40% reduction in the retrofitting budget, despite identifying 35% of the region's buildings in high-risk areas; weakness in information and regulatory transparency; and the lack of legal solutions to attract the participation of non-governmental organizations are among the main obstacles to risk management. On the other hand, the use of new technologies, including artificial intelligence monitoring systems for structures (IMSS) and advanced simulation tools, was proposed as a key strategy to accelerate vulnerability identification and crisis management. In addition, special emphasis was placed on spatial justice in the proposed programs, with a particular focus on prioritizing the southern neighborhoods of District 19 in the distribution of relief resources and infrastructure. The use of mechanisms such as establishing joint citizen-urban management working groups and training local volunteers to monitor infrastructure damage was also recognized as the most important complementary approach.
Results and Discussion: The research findings indicate that Region 19's physical resilience to earthquakes requires redefining the interactions between the governance system and the local community. For example, the evaluation of the consequences of implementing smart systems to identify vulnerable structures showed that the time to identify unsafe buildings was reduced from 72 hours to 4 hours, and the launch of such infrastructure could increase the region's resilience index from 2.6 to 4.1. In addition, the equitable distribution of relief resources in poor neighborhoods in the south of the region has reduced the distance vulnerable populations must travel to access relief services from 2.5 km to less than 800 meters. On the other hand, the findings indicate that the lack of transparency in budget allocation, conflicts of institutional interests, and weaknesses in the implementation of laws related to building retrofitting are among the most important management challenges that significantly reduce the effectiveness of resilient programs.
Conclusion: The results of this study emphasize that achieving higher levels of resilience in high-risk areas such as District 19 of Tehran requires moving towards more comprehensive models. These models should integrate elements of physical retrofitting, technological transformation, spatial justice, and active citizen participation. Based on the findings of this study, strategies such as establishing joint working groups between urban management and residents to increase transparency, designing real-time monitoring systems for structural conditions, and focusing on poor areas in reconstruction programs can significantly reduce vulnerability. Although these strategies have a high potential to change conditions effectively, their implementation requires coordination among policymakers, executives, and the local community. Finally, it is suggested that these programs be tested in local pilot projects, especially in the Afsariyeh neighborhood, to ensure their practical impact.