فصلنامه علمی توسعه پایدار محیط جغرافیایی

فصلنامه علمی توسعه پایدار محیط جغرافیایی

تحلیل محرک‌های کلیدی اثرگذار بر افزایش اثربخشی برنامه‌های راهبردی-عملیاتی شهر و شهرداری با رویکرد آینده‌پژوهی (موردمطالعه: شهر اسلامشهر)

نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان
گروه جغرافیا، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد چالوس، چالوس، ایران.
چکیده
مقدمه: در عصر حاضر، مدیریت شهری با پیچیدگی‌های فزاینده‌ای مواجه است که ضرورت پیوند مؤثر میان اسناد فرادست، برنامه‌های میان‌مدت و بودجه سالانه را بیش‌ازپیش نمایان می‌سازد. شهر اسلامشهر به‌عنوان بخشی از منطقه کلان‌شهری تهران، در دهه‌های اخیر پذیرای حجم قابل‌توجهی از مهاجران بوده است، اما فقدان برنامه‌ریزی کلان متناسب با این رشد شتابان، منجر به چالش‌هایی مانند تراکم جمعیتی و ساختمانی شده است. برنامه‌های راهبردی-عملیاتی شهرداری به‌عنوان ابزارهای کلیدی برای تحقق توسعه پایدار و بهبود کیفیت زندگی شهروندان شناخته می‌شوند؛ بااین‌حال، اثربخشی این برنامه‌ها همواره تحت تأثیر عوامل متعدد و پیچیده‌ای قرار دارد؛ بنابراین، شناسایی و اولویت‌بندی محرک‌های کلیدی مؤثر بر افزایش اثربخشی این برنامه‌ها، به‌ویژه با رویکرد آینده‌پژوهی، به یک نیاز اساسی در مدیریت شهری اسلامشهر تبدیل شده است. سؤال اصلی پژوهش حاضر این است که کدام عوامل بیشترین نقش را در تحقق‌پذیری و کارآمدی برنامه‌های راهبردی-عملیاتی شهر و شهرداری اسلامشهر ایفا می‌کنند؟
مواد و روشها: این پژوهش از نظر هدف، کاربردی و از نظر روش، آمیخته‌ای (توصیفی-تحلیلی) در چارچوب آینده‌پژوهی است. داده‌ها به دو شیوه اسنادی (مطالعه منابع کتابخانه‌ای و مقالات) و میدانی (پرسشنامه) گردآوری شدند. جامعه آماری شامل 25 نفر از خبرگان و متخصصان مدیریت و برنامه‌ریزی شهری (مدیران شهری، اعضای شورا، کارشناسان استانداری و اساتید دانشگاه) بود. پس از استخراج شاخص‌های اثرگذار از مبانی نظری و پالایش آن‌ها با روش دلفی، از ماتریس اثرات متقاطع (MICMAC) برای تحلیل میزان اثرگذاری و اثرپذیری مستقیم و غیرمستقیم متغیرها در پنج بُعد «ساختاری-سازمانی، فرآیندی-برنامه‌ریزی، منابع-اقتصادی، محیطی-مشارکت ذی‌نفعان، تخصصی-فنی» استفاده شد.
نتایج و بحث: درجه پرشدگی ماتریس‌ها بین 90 تا 91.67 درصد بود که نشان‌دهنده تراکم بالای روابط بین متغیرهاست. در بُعد ساختاری-سازمانی، «استقلال نسبی شهرداری و وابستگی متقابل»، «تجدید ساختار و سازمان‌دهی مجدد» و «هماهنگی بین واحدهای سازمانی» به‌عنوان اثرگذارترین پیشران‌ها شناسایی شدند. در بُعد فرآیندی-برنامه‌ریزی، «فناوری اطلاعات و مدیریت دانش»، «تعریف دقیق اهداف و چشم‌انداز» و «هماهنگی بین واحدها و سازمان‌های مرتبط» در رتبه‌های نخست قرار گرفتند. در بُعد منابع-اقتصادی، «تنوع منابع درآمدی»، «شفافیت مالی و بودجه» و «سیاست‌های مالی مقاومتی» بیشترین اثرگذاری را داشتند. در ابعاد محیطی-مشارکت ذی‌نفعان و تخصصی-فنی نیز عواملی مانند «همکاری نهادی»، «شفافیت اطلاعات» و «ظرفیت‌های تخصصی و داده‌های به‌روز» به‌عنوان پیشران‌های کلیدی مطرح شدند.
نتیجهگیری: یافته‌های پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که سیستم اثربخشی برنامه‌های راهبردی-عملیاتی در اسلامشهر، بیش از هر چیز تحت تأثیر محرک‌های حکمرانی/سازمانی و فرآیندی است و محرک‌های مالی، مشارکتی و فنی نقش تکمیلی ایفا می‌کنند. مهم‌ترین محرک‌های کلیدی نهایی عبارت‌اند از: تمرکززدایی، تجدید ساختار و سازماندهی مجدد، تعریف دقیق اهداف، فناوری اطلاعات و مدیریت دانش، تنوع منابع درآمدی، شفافیت مالی، توجه به شرایط اجتماعی-اقتصادی و تقویت ظرفیت‌های تخصصی. این پژوهش مؤید آن است که در اسلامشهر، مشارکت شهروندی بیش از آنکه یک علت اولیه باشد، معلول بهبود حکمرانی، شفافیت و ارتباطات است. همچنین، استقلال نسبی شهرداری به‌عنوان یک متغیر بسیار اثرگذار، اهمیت کاهش وابستگی‌های مالی-اداری و تقویت تصمیم‌گیری محلی را خاطرنشان می‌سازد. در پایان، راهکارهای اجرایی همچون ایجاد سازوکارهای هماهنگی بین‌بخشی، راه‌اندازی داشبورد مدیریتی، تنوع‌بخشی درآمدی و استقرار نظام یکپارچه داده شهری برای افزایش اثربخشی برنامه‌ها پیشنهاد شده‌اند.
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Analysis of Key Drivers Influencing the Enhancement of Effectiveness in Strategic-Operational Programs of City and Municipality with a Futures Studies Approach (Case Study: Islamshahr City)

نویسندگان English

Maziar Ghaffari
Leyla Ebrahimi Jamanani
Seyyed Asgar Mirfatallahi
Kia Bozorgmehr
Mehrdad Ramezanipour
Department of Geography, Cha.C., Islamic Azad University, Chalus, Iran
چکیده English

Introduction: Contemporary urban management is increasingly complex, highlighting the urgent need for alignment among overarching policies, medium-term plans, and annual budgets. Islamshahr, as part of the Tehran metropolitan region, has experienced substantial in-migration in recent decades. However, the lack of macro-level planning commensurate with this rapid growth has contributed to high population and building densities. Municipal strategic-operational plans are important tools for achieving sustainable development and improving citizens' quality of life. Nevertheless, the effectiveness of these plans is influenced by multiple interrelated factors. Therefore, identifying and prioritizing the key drivers that enhance the effectiveness of these plans through a futures studies approach is essential for urban management in Islamshahr. This study aimed to identify and prioritize the factors that most strongly affect play the most significant role in the feasibility and effectiveness of strategic-operational plans for the city and municipality of Islamshahr?
Materials and Methods: This is an applied study and employs a mixed (descriptive-analytical) methodology within a futures studies framework. Data were collected through document review and a questionnaire survey. The expert panel comprised 25 urban management and planning specialists in urban management and planning (including urban managers, city council members, provincial government experts, and university professors). Potential indicators were derived from the literature and refining them through the Delphi method, analyzed using MICMAC cross-impact analysis the direct and indirect influence and dependence of variables across five dimensions: Structural-Organizational, Process-Planning, Resource-Economic, Environmental-Stakeholder Participation, and Specialized-Technical.
Results and Discussion: The matrix fill rate ranged between 90.00% and 91.67%, indicating a high density of relationships among variables. In the Structural-Organizational dimension, "Relative Autonomy of the Municipality and Interdependence, "Restructuring and Reorganization" and "Coordination among Organizational Units" were identified as the most influential drivers. In the Process-Planning dimension, "Information Technology and Knowledge Management," "Precise Definition of Goals and Vision," and "Coordination among Units and Related Organizations" ranked highest. In the Resource-Economic dimension, "Diversification of Revenue Sources," "Financial and Budget Transparency," and "Resilient Financial Policies" had the greatest impact. In the Environmental-Stakeholder Participation and Specialized-Technical dimensions, factors such as "Institutional Collaboration," "Information Transparency," and "Specialized Capacities and Up-to-Date Data" emerged as key drivers.
Conclusion: The findings reveal that the effectiveness of strategic-operational plans in Islamshahr is primarily influenced by governance/organizational and process drivers, while financial, participatory, and technical drivers play complementary roles. The most influential drivers include decentralization, restructuring and reorganization, precise goal definition, information technology and knowledge management, revenue source diversification, financial transparency, attention to socio-economic conditions, and enhancement of specialized capacities. This study corroborates that in Islamshahr, citizen participation is more a consequence of improved governance, transparency, and communication than a primary cause. Furthermore, the relative autonomy of the municipality, as a highly influential variable, underscores the importance of reducing financial-administrative dependencies and strengthening local decision-making. Finally, practical solutions such as establishing cross-sectoral coordination mechanisms, implementing performance-management dashboards, diversifying revenue streams, and deploying integrated urban data systems are proposed to enhance plan effectiveness.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Key drivers
Strategic plan
Operational plan
Futures studies
Islamshahr Municipality
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