نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی
عنوان مقاله English
نویسندگان English
Introduction: Rapid spatial development in the Chabahar region, driven by its growing geostrategic and geo-economic importance, population growth, and expanding development activities, has intensified informal settlement formation and increased pressure on land, infrastructure, and urban services. Although numerous studies have examined different aspects of this issue, the relationship between observed spatial transformation, structural drivers of development, and the prioritization, sequencing, and phasing of interventions has received limited integrated attention. This study aims to analyses the challenges of spatial development and informal settlements and develop an integrated, time-oriented planning framework for intervention prioritization, sequencing, and phasing in the Chabahar region.
Materials and Methods: A mixed-methods sequential design was adopted. Factors were assessed across four dimensions: managerial, institutional and executive capacity; socio-economic conditions; physical and infrastructural conditions; and environmental and natural conditions. Four Delphi rounds were conducted. The AHP determined dimension importance, while SWOT, IFE, and EFE supported strategic assessment. Twenty key strategies were identified, and their structural relationships, precedence, and dependence were examined via ISM. MICMAC then assessed driving power and dependence. In parallel, multi-temporal Landsat imagery was analyzed using NDBI and GIS to identify built-up expansion patterns. Results were overlaid with legal boundaries, approved buffers, and spatial data from Chabahar development plans. Spatial and strategic findings were then integrated to establish a coherent logic for intervention prioritization and implementation.
Results and Discussion: The AHP results showed that managerial, institutional, and executive capacity was the most influential dimension, with a weight of 0.615, followed by physical and infrastructural conditions (0.254), socio-economic conditions (0.098), and environmental and natural conditions (0.033). The IFE and EFE scores were 2.90 and 2.75, respectively, indicating relatively favorable internal conditions and substantial external opportunities. The strategy of “integrated and time-oriented governance” received the highest strategy weight (0.085) and occupied the most foundational position in the ISM structure. The ISM model organized the strategies into eight structural levels, while MICMAC distinguished relatively driving strategies from dependent ones. Spatial analysis revealed substantially faster built-up expansion in peripheral areas and locations beyond legal boundaries than within the formal city, indicating a persistent divergence between realized spatial development and the planned spatial structure. This pattern demonstrates that informal expansion is not simply a consequence of insufficient physical infrastructure, but is also associated with institutional and governance conditions shaping land development.
Conclusion: Addressing informal settlements in Chabahar requires shifting from fragmented physical interventions to an integrated, structural, time-oriented planning framework linking spatial evidence, strategic importance, structural precedence, and dependence. The study redefines time orientation as an adaptive decision-making mechanism, not a fixed timetable. Interventions are organized by strategic importance, structural precedence, interdependence, and phased implementation capacity, with spatial monitoring enabling recalibration as conditions change. This framework coordinates actors across scales, helping distinguish foundational actions from concurrent or adjustable measures. Governance and institutional capacity form the structural foundation, followed progressively by social, physical, infrastructural, and environmental measures according to dependencies and spatial priorities. It reduces isolated actions that may reproduce, rather than resolve, informal spatial growth.
کلیدواژهها English
