Introduction: Small cities and their role in spatial planning in developing countries constitute an important component of urban development strategies. Global experiences in this field indicate that addressing the problems and challenges of large cities largely depends on supporting smaller urban centers. At the regional level, the diffusion of development from small cities to surrounding rural areas has also been widely recognized. In Iran, however, the growth and expansion of large cities (those with populations exceeding 500,000) has been rapid and highly centralized, leading to various environmental, economic, and social challenges. Over time, the urban network of Iran has followed a centralizing trend, resulting in a widening gap between metropolitan areas and other cities, particularly medium-sized and small cities in terms of population, economic capacity, and social development. Consequently, urban planners and managers need to place serious emphasis on improving the quality of life in order to address urban problems and respond to the needs of residents. In recent decades, alongside the emergence of the sustainable development and sustainable urban development paradigms, the concept of improving quality of life has gained increasing attention in urban planning literature. Within this context, one of the key concepts associated with urban sustainability and quality of life improvement is urban livability.
Materials and Methods: The present study is applied in terms of its purpose and descriptive–analytical in nature. Data were collected through documentary and field methods using a researcher-designed questionnaire administered to 22 members of the Administrative Council, including heads of governmental departments, organizations, and institutions, as well as experts from the Dishmook Municipality and District Administration. For data analysis, the foresight software tools MICMAC and Scenario Wizard were employed. In MICMAC, 53 variables were identified and examined through a cross-impact matrix to determine the influential and influenced variables and the relationships among them. Subsequently, based on cross-impact matrices and expert judgments in Scenario Wizard, the direct and indirect effects of the variables were calculated, and compatible and plausible scenarios for the future of the studied system were developed.
Results and Discussion: The results revealed that, among the 53 variables examined, seven variables with the highest overall levels of direct and indirect influence were identified as key drivers affecting the livability of Dishmook. These factors included public service management, the level of government investment, the equitable distribution of facilities and infrastructure, the level of citizens’ political activity, trends in urban construction and development, the level of public social participation, and private-sector investment. Subsequently, three states—desirable, static, and critical—were defined for each of these factors and analyzed using a 21 × 21 matrix in Scenario Wizard software. The results indicated that, under the desirable scenario, public service management, government investment, private-sector investment, and public social participation were the strongest drivers. Greater attention to these factors could increase residents’ satisfaction and, consequently, enhance their political and social participation. Furthermore, increased public and private investment, coupled with improved public service management, particularly in the healthcare and education sectors, could provide the foundation for economic, social, political, managerial, tourism, and welfare development, ultimately improving the livability of Dishmook.
Conclusion: The results of the study show that the livability of Dishmok is primarily influenced by a combination of managerial factors, investment dynamics, and social participation. Structural analysis and scenario development indicate that variables such as public service management, equitable distribution of infrastructure, land‑use regulations, government and private investment, and social participation serve as the key drivers for improving the city’s conditions. At the same time, continuation of the current situation may intensify vulnerabilities and even lead to out‑migration. Despite existing developmental constraints, the city retains active social and participatory capacities that can be mobilized to support urban transformation. Therefore, strengthening local governance, facilitating investment, and enhancing citizen participation can significantly contribute to improving livability and fostering sustainable development in Dishmok. Overall, development approaches grounded in social capital and institutional support offer the greatest potential for shaping a better future for the city.